From May to November, Floridians find themselves scrutinizing a hurricane cone of uncertainty at least once. As a storm approaches and the state and its citizens prepare for landfall, key decisions depend on critical data from inside the storm captured by some of the field’s bravest researchers — the hurricane hunters.

Florida State University alumnus and native Floridian Andrew Hazelton is among those who fly back and forth through hurricane eyewalls, at 10,000 feet high, collecting data to improve the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, a next-generation hurricane modeling technology that he helped develop.

“HAFS is one of several models the National Hurricane Center uses when monitoring a storm in the Atlantic, and it has provided more accurate forecasts for recent hurricanes,” said Hazelton, who presently works in Miami as a physical scientist with the National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center. “The model shows promise in predicting track and intensity, storm size, storm surge, tornadoes and other effects. HAFS also managed to predict the rapid intensification in Hurricanes Helene and Milton in the 2024 season.”

For some scientists, the prospect of being tossed around inside the fury of a hurricane is a hard pass, but for Hazelton, a three-time FSU meteorology alumnus, it’s how the job gets done. Satellite data informing models like HAFS only gets his team so far — radar imagery of the storm from an airplane in real time gives researchers and forecasters a snapshot of the storm at its current state, letting them measure specific data points and add these to the forecast model.

“There’s nothing like being in the eye of a storm,” Hazelton marveled. “Most of our research is done on screens, but when you see the scale of these clouds all around you and realize what a massive force of nature you’re dealing with — it’s remarkable.”

Hazelton has worked on forecast models since he started at FSU as a freshman in 2009, and he went on to earn a bachelor’s degree in 2011, a master’s in 2013 and a doctorate in 2016. He first studied forecast errors in NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model before later investigating the structure of a hurricane’s inner core, or its eye, and how that informs hurricane intensity predictions using the Weather Research and Forecasting model.

Robert Hart, Sunkist Professor of Meteorology and chair of the FSU Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, worked with Hazelton throughout his time at the university and served as his doctoral adviser. During FSU’s 2024 Homecoming festivities, Hazelton received the Reubin O’D. Askew Young Alumni Award, a recognition for which Hart and two distinguished external colleagues nominated him. The award is the highest honor bestowed upon young alumni by the FSU Alumni Association.

“When I met Andy, I immediately noticed his creativity, incredible work ethic and energy, and kind heart; he would help everyone in the world, if he found the time,” Hart said. “He’s been flying into hurricanes for the past six years, and this comes with inherent risk. But it’s about collecting data needed to protect the public, and his work has an enormous impact on forecasts. He’s doing it for us all.”

Hazelton began postdoctoral research in 2016 with a collaborative program between Princeton University and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. There, he helped build the prototype hurricane model that became the foundation of HAFS.

Through his work at the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and the Hurricane Research Division at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hazelton continued developing the HAFS model alongside NOAA scientists and partners from several universities. After years of development, HAFS came fully online for the 2023 hurricane season.

“When HAFS became officially operational, it was a big milestone,” he said. “Now that we’ve reached this plateau, it’s time to take the next steps in continuing to develop this model not only for operations but also for research.”

Currently, Hazelton is also a physical scientist with NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center where, in addition to his work on HAFS, he’s improving accuracy of the GFS model and expanding the scope of his research from Atlantic cyclones to storms in all the world’s oceans.

“Our goal at NOAA is to protect lives and property through our forecasts,” Hazelton said.  “In 2004, my family endured hurricanes Charlie, Francis, and Jean within a few months of each other. Growing up in Florida and experiencing hurricanes motivated me to create better forecasts that people can use to more accurately understand possible impacts. It means a lot that my work impacts so many lives.”

Devin Bittner is a two-time FSU alumna who earned a Master of Business Administration in 2022 and a bachelor’s in digital media production in 2019.